{"id":10195,"date":"2018-09-11T05:00:09","date_gmt":"2018-09-11T09:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/?p=10195"},"modified":"2019-01-12T14:43:41","modified_gmt":"2019-01-12T19:43:41","slug":"rounders-and-lessons-for-modern-gamblers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/rounders-and-lessons-for-modern-gamblers\/","title":{"rendered":"<i>Rounders<\/i> and Lessons for Modern Gamblers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Twenty years after <strong><i>Rounders<\/i><\/strong>\u2019 release, the gambling<i> <\/i>narrative remains applicable in a world of post-20th-century hustlers. Written by the creative team behind Showtime\u2019s<i> Billions (<\/i>Brian Koppelman and David Levien), John Dahl\u2019s film<i> <\/i>captures the spirit of underground poker and the skillset needed for high stakes, face-to-face Texas Hold \u2018Em competitions. In today\u2019s world of FanDuel, DraftKings and legalized sports betting, <i>Rounders<\/i>\u2019 lessons translate to <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Daily_fantasy_sports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"s2\">daily fantasy sports<\/span><\/a> (DFS) and even personal relationships. Listen (<i>Rounders<\/i> voice), there\u2019s a difference between rolling the dice and rolling out well-developed analytical strategies. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">For the casual gambler, <i>Rounders<\/i>\u2019 narrative structure effectively connects the dots. Law student Mike McDermott (Matt Damon) has a beautiful, on-the-level girlfriend, Jo (Gretchen Mol), a best pal fresh out of the clink (Edward Norton), an underground connection (John Turturro), and a poker nemesis (John Malkovich). From the jump, Mike\u2019s declarative narration lets the audience know this isn\u2019t his first rodeo. (Note: it <i>always<\/i> helps to begin authoritative commentaries with \u201cListen\u201d\u2014 just watch ESPN for 10 minutes.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In <i>Rounders<\/i>, Mike immediately communicates the film\u2019s entire premise with a powerhouse trifecta of memorable quotes:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>\u201cListen, here\u2019s the thing: If you can\u2019t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.\u201d<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>\u201cYou don\u2019t gamble. You grind it out.\u201d<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>\u201cIf you\u2019re too careful, your whole life can become a f**king grind.\u201d<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The morally righteous non-gambler might get the impression that Mike has a massive poker problem \u2014 a fair point, especially when he hustles for three consecutive days to literally survive (and save his best friend, too). Plus, in-the-know Jo doesn\u2019t quite appreciate the context of her beau\u2019s shenanigans. As Mike explains, though, he uses a methodical approach to not only read the occupants of a room, but to process crucial information that often goes unnoticed by others. After taking down a roomful of jurisprudential gents, Mike humblebrags to judge Abe Petrovsky (Martin Landau), who seems perplexed by his young friend\u2019s observant approach, saying, \u201cI never knew you had to calculate so much at cards.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">It\u2019s a strange comment coming from an accomplished and self-admittedly obsessive man. Then again, maybe Petrovsky is running his own game. And it\u2019s that game of situational give-and-take that applies to 2018 daily fantasy sports and communicating the fundamentals.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Now that NFL DFS has commenced, consider this: In 2018, Mike would play \u201ccash games\u201d rather than GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pools). Theoretically, he would build up his bankroll by focusing on double ups or 50\/50s (cash games). Rather than trying to take down a GPP against 30,000 or more competitors, he\u2019d focus on flipping his buy-in by reducing the risk. For an extra advantage, Mike would focus on Single Entry competitions, primarily to separate himself from the \u201csharks\u201d who make a living by entering the maximum numbers of lineups with different variations (\u201chedging\u201d), and to simultaneously reduce the field as a whole. The highest-paying $5 Single Entry on FanDuel typically has around 1,000 entries, which makes it much easier to slay the newbies and avoid the high-rollin\u2019 rounders. In other words, a cash game strategy allows one to profit slowly instead of \u201ctilting\u201d like a maniac.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/rounders-john-malkovich.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright  wp-image-10197\" src=\"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/rounders-john-malkovich.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"434\" height=\"289\" srcset=\"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/rounders-john-malkovich.jpg 500w, https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/rounders-john-malkovich-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 434px) 100vw, 434px\" \/><\/a>On FanDuel or DraftKings, someone like Mike obviously can\u2019t read faces for the primary intel, and I\u2019m not saying DFS is <i>just like<\/i> Texas Hold \u2018Em. But one can still get the upper hand by gauging the field, analyzing the available information, and predicting ownership percentages \u2014 meaning many casual DFS players choose their favorite athletes and the most obvious picks. They don\u2019t know any better. In <i>Rounders<\/i>, when Mike ultimately bamboozles his nemesis, Teddy KGB, after \u201cflopping the nut straight,\u201d he consistently checks KGB and pivots to the best value play. Down goes Teddy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">A 21st-century DFS rounder like Worm (Edward Norton) would use the same techniques, only he or she would be more interested in high payouts than doubling up. Whether it\u2019s the NFL, NBA or MLB, Worm would avoid or \u201cfade\u201d the most popular players (\u201cthe chalk\u201d) and pivot to the best value play. DFS rounders will also sneak in the occasional \u201cpunt\u201d \u2014 a low-cost player who\u2019s expected to perform well. On Sundays, the smart DFS player might fade Tom Brady and pivot to Russell Wilson. Or you pay down for Tyrod Taylor as a medium-punt and then pay up to grab Le\u2019Veon Bell at RB. If you want to go full-punt, then seek out a low-cost playmaker who can bust one out, or who goes under the radar for whatever reason on game day. These decisions allow you to optimize your roster construction while remaining an outlier within the field. (Tip: the LineStar application is extremely helpful for comparative DFS analysis.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Just as Mike watches VHS tapes of pros, the elite and most successful DFS players watch YouTube channels like RotoGrinders or join DFS groups to gather intel. But here\u2019s the thing: The casual DFS player will often believe everything the so-called experts say. In reality, though, the talking heads are looking for an advantage like everybody else. And so, <i>Rounders\u2019<\/i> lessons come into play once again, as there are indeed opportunities to read the competition\u2019s face in daily fantasy sports. If you\u2019re smart like Mike, you\u2019ll have already built up your bank roll in Single Entry double ups before deciding to swim with the sharks. Then, it\u2019s a matter of deciding when to pounce. Even the DFS on-air versions of Teddy KGB can reveal a \u201ctell.\u201d Sometimes they\u2019re too giddy, and they\u2019re often too dismissive of certain value plays. Why? Because they want low ownership. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In <i>Rounders<\/i>, as well as in the DFS world, timing is crucial. It\u2019s the little things. For Mike, he must be selective about who he associates with, and when, and where. For those looking to make a few bucks on DFS Sundays or during the NBA season, don\u2019t minimize your opportunities by lazily missing contest deadlines and playing it too cool like Worm. The most crucial decisions are often made in the minutes before \u201clock.\u201d Listen (<i>Rounders <\/i>voice): If you can\u2019t manage your time to give yourself the best chance of winning, then you\u2019re just feeding the sharks. Don\u2019t do that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>\u201cThere\u2019s cash, and there\u2019s the trade.\u201d<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">It\u2019s not luck that drives <i>Rounders\u2019 <\/i>narrative, it\u2019s the concepts of preparation, opportunity, and accountability. Fade the chalk. Read the room. Fold or hang tough.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div><em>Join our <a href=\"http:\/\/crookedmarquee.us16.list-manage.com\/subscribe?u=dc6679cd997ec610eeaf50562&amp;id=db71dbf4c3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mailing list<\/a>! 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Written by the creative [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":524,"featured_media":10196,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1381,1399],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-movies","category-looking-back"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/524"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10195\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crookedmarquee.com\/stage8\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}